China's trade surplus passed $1 trillion in the first ten months of 2026, official customs data showed on Tuesday, as booming global demand for artificial intelligence hardware pushed exports sharply higher. The surplus reached $1.04 trillion between January and October, the second year in a row it has crossed the trillion-dollar mark, and a month earlier than in 2025.
Image: MNXANL, via Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 4.0).
October exports beat forecasts
Exports rose 35.2% in October from a year earlier in US dollar terms, reaching $412.3 billion, according to the General Administration of Customs. The rise was only slightly slower than September's 36.3% jump and ahead of the 33.5% increase economists had expected in a Reuters poll. Reuters reported the figures on Tuesday, confirming that the export boom has held up even as trade tensions with major partners continue.
AI hardware powers the surge
The strongest growth came from technology goods. Integrated circuit exports jumped 137.1% to $39.6 billion, as demand grew for computer chips, data centre servers and networking equipment. Car exports rose 37.6% to $19.7 billion, while mobile phone shipments climbed 13.2%. The rush to build AI infrastructure around the world has turned into a powerful tailwind for Chinese factories, helping to offset weak spending at home.
Imports grow even faster
Imports grew 41.6% in October to $307.1 billion, well above the 32% rise economists had forecast and faster than September's 31% increase. Because imports grew faster than exports, the monthly surplus narrowed to $105.3 billion, down from $133.5 billion in September, the smallest monthly gap since April. Total trade in goods grew 20% year on year over the first ten months, quickening from 18.8% in the January-to-September period.
What the surplus means for global trade
China is now on course to pass last year's record full-year surplus of $1.2 trillion. Its surplus with the European Union reached $310.7 billion in the first ten months, up from $241.6 billion a year earlier, while its surplus with the United States eased slightly to $32.71 billion in October from $34.01 billion in September, even though exports to the US rose 32.9%. The growing imbalance is likely to add to pressure from trading partners for China to open its markets further and to lift domestic demand. Trade tensions are also shaping growth elsewhere: eurozone inflation hit 4% in October, its highest level in three years, as energy prices surged. Customs will publish full-year figures in January, and if the current pace holds, 2026 will set a new annual record.
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